South Africa’s worst year of load-shedding ever — with 235 days to go

Eskom load-shedding in the first four months of 2023 has already surpassed the entirety of 2022, and the forecast for this winter paints a bleak picture.

This is according to energy expert Anton Eberhard, who put the amount of load-shedding so far this year into perspective.

“Power cuts in South Africa in the first four months of 2023 are already greater than all of 2022, which in turn was 4.5× greater than 2021. When we think it can’t get much worse, it does,” he said.

Eberhard’s stats show that Eskom shed nearly 8.4GWh of electricity between January and April 2023, compared to 8.1GWh throughout the entire 2022.

The state-owned power utility shed almost 1.8GWh in 2021, and 1.27GWh and 1.10GWh in 2020 and 2019, respectively.

The country has experienced various stages of load-shedding up to Stage 6 since January 2023, and Eskom’s generation capacity forecast suggests that higher stages could be required this winter.

This is according to various energy experts and Eskom generation manager Bheki Nxumalo.

Nxumalo noted that Eskom’s energy availability factor (EAF) is significantly lower than it has been in winters past — and that this would be the first winter South Africa faces with the Koeberg nuclear power station completely offline.

Both Koeberg’s generating units are offline for maintenance. They weren’t both supposed to be offline simultaneously, but the maintenance hasn’t gone according to plan.

Eskom load shed per year, according to Anton Eberhard.

“We are going through this winter without a unit at Koeberg, which is something that is a first for us in Generation,” he said.

Nxumalo added that the amount of unavailable generation capacity would likely mean an “extremely difficult” winter for South Africa.

Eskom’s System Operator is preparing for higher stages of load-shedding. The System Operator is responsible for the stability of the South African grid and implementing load-shedding when necessary.

Together with stakeholders, they are updating the load-shedding code of practice to provide directives beyond stage 8.

Existing load-shedding schedules currently only go up to stage 8.

Chair of the National Rationalized Specifications (NRS) Association, Vally Padayachee, said the new code would be submitted to the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (Nersa).

“There has been a lot of consultation, but we need to now put a stop date on it for the sake of the grid,” said Padayachee.

“We cannot guarantee that in winter, we will not go beyond stage 8.”

If Eskom were to implement Stage 9 load-shedding without the code of practice in place, distributors would have to use their own operating procedures to protect the national grid from collapsing.

“In that environment, the propensity for human error is very possible,” Padayachee stated.

Kgosientso Ramokgopa, minister for electricity in The Presidency.

Energy expert Clyde Mallinson anticipates that Eskom will face an 11,000MW generation shortfall this winter, resulting in Stage 9 load-shedding and 2,000MW of load-curtailment.

Load-curtailment is used in energy-intensive industries that can’t switch electricity on or off. The practice involves reducing these users’ electricity consumption rather than turning their power off completely during load-shedding.

The remaining 9,000MW of the 11,000MW shortfall will be gained through stage 9 load-shedding, which will see households and normal businesses in South Africa without power for more than half the day.

“I hope if we do touch stage 9, it will be for very brief periods, like between 17:00 and 20:00 at night,” Mallinson said.

Co-director of the Centre for Sustainability Transitions at Stellenbosch University, Professor Mark Swilling, concurs with Mallinson’s prediction.

He said that the load-shedding situation would worsen if Eskom’s performance doesn’t improve, resulting in higher stages during winter as demand increases.

The prediction aligns with information from Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa.

Ramokgopa said Eskom faces a shortfall of 8,000MW to 10,000MW in winter, which equates to stage 8 to 10 load-shedding.

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