South Africa’s rotten retail sales

Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) says retail sales decreased by 1.6% year-on-year in March 2013.

Stats SA’s information is based upon a monthly survey, which uses a sample from Stats SA’s 2022 business sampling frame (BSF) that contains businesses registered for value-added tax (VAT).

The main contributors to the decrease were general dealers (-1.9% and contributing -0.9 of a percentage point) and retailers in food, beverages and tobacco in specialised stores (-6.6% and contributing -0.6 of a percentage point).

However, retailers in textiles, clothing, footwear and leather goods were positive contributors (6.3% and contributing 1.0 percentage points).

Retail trade sales for the three months that ended March 2023 are below:

Seasonally adjusted retail trade sales dropped by 0.7% in March from February’s -0.7% – adjusted downwards from -0.5%.

The decline follows a 0.3% decline in February and a 1.4% drop in January 2023.

Retail trade sales dropped by 1.0% in Q1 2023 compared to Q1 2022.

The largest contributors to the drop were retailers in hardware, paint and glass (-5.7% and contributing -0.5 of a percentage point), general dealers (-1.0% and contributing -0.4 of a percentage point); and retailers in food, beverages and tobacco in specialised stores (-4.8% and contributing -0.4 of a percentage point).

However, retailers in textiles, clothing, footwear and leather goods were again positive contributors to the total (4.7% and contributing 0.8 of a percentage point).

Retail trade sales for the three months that ended March 2023 are below:

That being said, seasonally adjusted retail sales did increase by 0,8% in Q1 2023 compared to Q4 2022.

Retailers in textiles, clothing, footwear and leather goods led the positive contribution (4.4% and contributing 0.8 of a percentage point).

Below are the seasonally adjusted retail trade sales for the latest quarter:

Opposing commentary 

The retail stats are in stark contrast with the data and commentary from industry experts.

Octodec’s, a leading real estate investment trust company, latest interim results show that its retail environment is still strong.

Octodec said that several renewals of commercial leases are currently being finalised, with demand remaining strong across Gauteng.

It said that its retail shopping centre had core vacancies running between 0.1% and 6.4%.

The overall rental retail income it received also jumped by 3.6% on a like-for-like basis.

Moreover, Clur, an asset management company, reported that trading density and growth for South African shopping centres in 2022 was at its highest level for four years.

In addition, the group said that the retail property sector remains resilient due to strong and new leasing activity.

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South Africa’s rotten retail sales