2 years ago
2
ARTICLE AD BOX
- For more financial news, go to the News24 Business front page.
Eskom says it anticipates a minimum of Stage 5 load shedding for most of the winter, but trends show there is a strong possibility of Stage 8 over July and August.
Stage 8 load shedding means consumers will be without electricity for half the time - or 16 hours in a 32-hour cycle.
Said Eskom chairman Mpho Makwana:
With the winter season upon us, our power system will be even more constrained. Weather forecasters are anticipating a much colder winter season. There are clear patterns of weather change in our country. And these challenges will result in high electricity demand. Load shedding is implemented by the national system operator, managing the power system to mitigate the probability of total country-wide blackout.
Head of generation Bheki Nxumalo said SA was entering "an extremely, extremely difficult period."
Eskom presented its winter plan on Thursday, forecasting the load-shedding outlook based on seasonal patterns of demand and the likely performance of the plant and the extent of the plant breakdowns.
Three scenarios have been modelled:
- In the base case, Eskom assumes unplanned outages or breakdowns of 15 000MW. This would likely necessitate Stage 5 load shedding for almost every day of May, July and August
- In the second scenario, breakdowns of 16 500MW are assumed, which would result in Stage 6 load shedding every day from May to the end of August
- In the third scenario, breakdowns of 18 000MW are assumed. This would require Stage 7 load shedding for every day of May and June and Stage 8 for every day of July and August.
Eskom's winter forecast. Graphic: Eskom
While Eskom believes it has put interventions in place to reduce breakdowns, this has not yet been reflected in the numbers, with the energy availability factor (EAF) – the proportion of the plant able to dispatch power – continuing downward at 53%.
Since 1 April, unplanned breakdowns have averaged between 16 000MW to 17 000MW, according to Eskom head of generation Bheki Nxumalo. This makes Stage 7 and Stage 8 more likely than ever before this winter.
Said acting CEO Calib Cassim:
It will be a difficult winter. We have 3 000MW less capacity than last winter with the loss of Kusile units 1 to 3 and one unit of Koeberg. The focus must be on the performance of the general fleet, but if unplanned outages reach 18 000MW, then the likelihood of Stage 8 is extremely high. But we are confident it will not occur, because of the interventions we have put in.
Makwana said the board of Eskom remained committed to meet the targets for a higher EAF that it set six months ago. This would entail a 65% EAF by the end of March 2024 and 70% by the end of March 2025.
Nxumalo said that the key intervention made was the deployment of experienced managers to power stations, which would be complete by the end of May and would "stabilise operations".
English (US)