News24.com | ANC likely to lose its majority, but marginal inroads expected from DA - survey

IEC barrier tape at voting station

• More than three-quarters of the participants in a survey conducted by Johannesburg-based think tank The Brenthurst Foundation, prefer a coalition government to take over from the ANC.
• Most, however, still like to see the ANC form part of the coalition.
• The survey shows that the ANC is likely to lose its majority, but that the DA is expected to make a marginal improvement.

The ANC stands to lose its majority in the 2024 general elections, but the DA can be expected to bag a slightly increased number of votes, according to a new survey of 1 000 registered voters who say they are "definitely set to vote" come 2024.

The survey on voter opinion, conducted by Johannesburg-based think tank The Brenthurst Foundation, indicates that the ANC is likely to receive around 47.6% of the vote - a 10% drop from its 57.50% achievement during the last national elections.

In addition, according to the survey, the DA is expected to receive 24% of the votes - a very marginal improvement from the 20.77% it achieved in the 2019 national elections.

Giving an indication of what could be fuelling the ANC's decline in popularity, more than 50% of survey respondents "blame the ANC government of the last three decades for the problems facing the country".

Even though ANC leaders often blame apartheid for most of the problems, only 8.9% of the survey participants believe the country's challenges can be attributed to the apartheid regime. 

At least 80% of respondents believe South Africa is going in the wrong direction under the ANC's leadership. 

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Respondents cited unemployment and corruption as the biggest problems facing the country. A third of the participants cited unemployment as the most pressing problem which the ANC-led government needs to address. 

Almost 25% of the participants believe corruption is a challenge that needs the most urgent attention, and 16.8% of the participants believe load shedding is a major challenge. 

More than three quarters of the respondents welcome a coalition government. At least 21.1% of the sample size is open to the ANC partnering with the DA, but only 18% welcomes an ANC-EFF partnership. 

The increase in support for the DA, according to the survey, is a result of the belief of the majority of the participants that the Western Cape is the best-governed province and Cape Town the best-governed city.

According to The Brenthurst Foundation's Henry Sands, the survey was based on a sample size of 1 000 registered voters who indicated that they would vote during the 2024 national elections. The Brenthurst Foundation said the sample size was nationally representative and took into consideration national statistics on gender, age, province and race.

The survey was conducted between 27 October and 10 November 2022 and took the form of a 15-minute questionnaire.

The Brenthurst Foundation was established by the Oppenheimer family in 2004 to support the Brenthurst Initiative to seek ways to fund African development and organise conferences on African competitiveness.